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Galileo
Q1 2026 GALILEO DEBIT SPEND INDEX

How Americans spent with debit — January - March 2026.

The Galileo Debit Spend Index captures millions of anonymized and aggregated transactions to reveal how Americans spend with debit each quarter. This Q1 2026 report highlights six spending categories.

Period
Jan – Mar 2026
Coverage
300+ MCC codes · All 50 states
Methodology
Anonymized & aggregated transactions
~64%
Digital payment share — up from 59.4% in Q4 2025
+18%
Consumers are eating out more often
+38%
Hotel spend growth — from flat in Q4 to surging in Q1
+47%
Sporting goods spend growth — driven by spring weather
01 · Snapshot

Slow January, Strong March.

Consumers spent more cautiously in January and early February 2026 following the holiday season. They audited their subscriptions and put off dining out. Then the second half of February arrived. Early filers saw tax refunds start to roll in, the first signs of warmer weather appeared, and spending picked up steam. From February to March, transaction volume across nearly every category jumped double digits.

Three patterns stand out: the dining rebound: fast food and restaurant transactions both grew +18% from January to March, reversing the Q4 trade-down; more travel spend with debit (hotels grew +38.1%, travel agencies +42.5%, and cruise lines +34.7%); and integrated payments continuing to gain ground, with the largest growth of any payment method coming from stored-credential transactions ("Card on File") Card on File climbing from 20.7% of Q4 transactions to 24.0% of Q1.

02

Everyday Essentials and the Dining Rebound

~32%Of Q1 Transactions
~20%Of Q1 Spend
+15.0%Transactions · Jan → Mar
+17.0%Spend · Jan → Mar

Essentials including food, fuel, pharmacy, and utilities accounted for roughly 32% of all Q1 debit transactions, the largest share of any category.

Fast food transactions declined 6.4% from October to December 2025, but in Q1, they grew +18.7%, and sit-down restaurants grew +18.3% alongside them. Both formats accelerated together rather than at each other's expense, with most of the growth concentrated in the February-to-March window.

Spend for key essentials continued to rise in Q1. Utility spend per transaction climbed nearly 15%, a pattern consistent with the cost of heating and peak winter heating bills. Grocery basket spend continued to grow as well: just +6.0% transaction growth but +8.3% in dollars, continuing the trend from Q4 of higher per-trip spend.

Essentials: Jan → March 2026 change
Key insight

The simultaneous rebound in fast food and sit-down dining is notable because these formats often move in opposite directions during periods of consumer caution. Both growing in tandem, and at similar rates, suggests Q1 dining demand recovered across most price points rather than recovering only at the value end.

03

The New Year, New You: Resolution Spending Met Refund Season

+26.3%Spend Growth · Jan → Mar
+18.8%Transactions · Jan → Mar
9MCC Categories Tracked

Q1 spending is when new-year intentions get tested against budgets, and the 2026 data shows real money behind resolutions. People spent +26.3% more on fitness gear, athletic apparel, and beauty services from January to March.

Transaction volume edged up modestly from January to February (+3.0%), then accelerated meaningfully from February to March, when transaction frequency climbed +15.3% and dollar spend climbed +17.3%.

The timing may also align with two outside factors. The IRS opened the 2026 filing season on January 26 with the first refunds beginning to land in mid-February; and, according to IRS data, the average federal refund in early 2026 was running approximately 10–11% higher than 2025, at roughly $3,500.

Spring weather also began arriving in much of the country during this same window. By March, sporting goods spend was 47% higher than January. Shoe stores climbed +58%, and bicycle shop spend more than doubled (+116%).

New Year spending growth, ranked by Jan → Mar spend surge
Key insight

The categories with the biggest spend surges all share an outdoor or seasonal weather theme, including sports apparel, athletic equipment and bike shops. The pattern is consistent with spring readiness purchases concentrated in March, rather than with January gym-membership-style resolution spending.

04

A Subscription Reset: February's Audit Cycle

~16%Of Q1 Debit Transactions Were Recurring
-9.8%Transactions · Jan → Feb
+14.0%Transactions · Feb → Mar

Q4 2025 showed every recurring payment category growing, a counterpoint to the popular "subscription fatigue" narrative. Q1 2026 doesn't reverse that conclusion, but it adds a nuance: every subcategory of recurring payments dipped in February before rebounding in March.

Digital goods transactions fell -11.5% from January to February. Cable and pay TV fell -7.9%. Subscription/continuity merchants fell -8.8%. Even digital apps, Q4's fastest-growing recurring category at +25.8%, fell -3.9% in February before bouncing back +15.9% in March. The category was nearly flat over the full quarter (+0.2% spend, +2.9% transactions), the dip and the recovery effectively cancelled each other out.

Recurring payment categories
% of Q1 Transactions with Jan → Feb and Feb → Mar changes
Key insight

The March recovery in nearly every subcategory aligns with the subscription hopping trend, (the practice of repeatedly canceling and rotating streaming services based on single shows or seasonal viewing to save money), which continues to be common as subscription prices rise.

05

The Experience Economy Goes Outside

+10.8%Transactions · Jan → Mar
+6.3%Spend · Jan → Mar
-12.3%Spend · Feb Pullback

Experience-economy spending followed the wider Q1 pattern: a February pullback (-7.1% transactions, -12.3% dollars) followed by a strong March rebound (+19.3% transactions, +21.3% dollars).

Q4's fastest-growing experience subcategories were indoor and online: movie theaters surged +112.9% on holiday-season blockbusters, video arcades and online gambling grew.

Q1's leaders followed early spring weather and motivations outside. Tourist attractions and exhibits grew +60.6% in spend. Marinas and marine services grew +37.6%. Bicycle shops more than doubled. Online gambling kept its position as the largest single experience subcategory, although spend was relatively flat compared to Q4.

Experience categories, ranked by Jan → Mar spend growth
06

Travel Breaks Loose — and Costs Climb

+22.4%Transactions · Jan → Mar
+37.4%Spend · Jan → Mar

In Q4 2025 travelers were cautious, even with seasonal demand: airline transactions grew modestly, and hotel spend held essentially flat. In Q1 2026, consumers were booking more travel and paying more for it. Every line item in the travel category grew double digits, and spend growth (+37%) significantly outpaced transaction volume (+22.4%) from January to March, a 15-point gap.

Several factors likely contributed to consumers paying more per booking, from longer stays and more premium experiences, to higher costs. Consumers were hit with the early days of rising jet fuel prices, which began in late February and March due to global supply chain disruptions.

Hotels and lodging, flat through Q4, climbed +38.1% in dollar spend from January to March on +22.4% transaction growth. Travel agency transactions grew 24%, the fastest of any travel subcategory, with average ticket value up +42.5%. Cruise lines added another 15.8% on top of Q4's gains, with another large average ticket increase of (+34.7%). Airlines posted +36.0% spend growth on +21.5% transactions.

Travel categories, ranked by Jan → Mar spend growth
Key insight

Direct booking on airline and hotel apps remains the dominant pattern in U.S. travel, but agency-led bookings actually outgrew direct channels in Q1. While some consumers may be planning longer or more complex itineraries, which travel agencies are most useful for; price sensitive travelers are likely drawn to agencies for promotional savings or bundled pricing discounts.

07

Digital Payments: More Consumers Pay with Stored Credentials

63.6%Digital Share · Transactions
24.0%Card on File · Up from 20.7% in Q4
$61.23Avg Card on File Transaction

In Q4 2025, 59.4% of debit transactions were digital. In Q1 2026, digital transactions increased to 63.6% with Card on File payments driving most of the growth.

Q1 2026 Payment Method Mix
Share of transactions vs. share of dollar value
Key insight

Card on File transactions, when stored credentials are saved within an account or payment app, grew from 20.7% of Q4 debit transactions to 24.0% of Q1, the largest shift of any payment method in the data. Average Card on File transaction value also rose to $61.23, well above the average for all payment types. The combination of higher transaction count and higher average value signals deeper consumer adoption.

08

A Home & Garden Spending Surge

+22.3%Transactions · Jan → Mar
+45.5%Spend · Jan → Mar
14MCC Categories Tracked

Spring weather opened the project window, and consumers spent +45.5% more by March. Transactions also grew +22.3%, with most of that growth concentrated in February-to-March (+33.5% spend, +32.8% transactions).

The growth was wide and consistent across the category. Home supply warehouse stores, the largest subcategory in Q1 spend, grew +44.8%. Hardware stores grew +76.9% in spend. Garden and lawn supply stores more than doubled in transactions (+103.7%) and grew +144.1% in spend.

Home & garden categories, ranked by Jan → Mar spend growth
Key insight

Outdoor categories like garden, pool, and nursery posted the largest spend gains, while indoor furnishing categories grew at more moderate single-digit-to-low-double-digit rates. Combined with the +44.8% surge at home supply warehouses, consumers are clearly diving into spring project plans.

09 · FAQ

Frequently asked questions.

In Q1 2026, approximately 64% of debit transactions were processed through digital channels (Card Not Present, Card on File, or E-Commerce), compared to about 34% through physical methods. Digital share grew about 4 percentage points from Q4 2025, with most of that growth concentrated in Card on File transactions, which climbed from 20.7% to 24.0% of all debit transactions.
Meals remain dominant: fast food restaurants (9.5%), eating places and restaurants (6.4%), and groceries (6.4%) together account for more than one in five debit transactions. Gas/fuel stations, digital goods, and cable services round out the top categories.
Travel and dining. In Q4 2025, hotels were flat, airlines grew only +8.7%, and fast food transactions actually declined -6.4%. In Q1 2026, hotels grew +38.1% in dollar spend, airlines +36.0%, and fast food transactions rebounded +18.7%. Travel was particularly notable for the gap between volume and dollars: transactions grew +22.4% across the quarter while dollar spend grew +37.4%, with average transaction value rising +12.3% — consumers are not just booking more travel, they're paying more per booking. Both shifts began in mid-February and accelerated through March.
Multiple factors aligned in this window. The IRS opened the 2026 tax filing season on January 26 with refunds beginning to land in mid-February at average amounts approximately 10–11% higher than 2025. Spring weather began arriving across most of the country during the same window. And many consumers likely completed their post-holiday subscription audits and budget resets by late February. The data shows the resulting spending shift in nearly every discretionary category.
Q1 2026 shows a different pattern from Q4 2025. Recurring payment categories dipped in February — every subcategory was down — and then recovered by March, ending the quarter nearly flat. The uniformity of the February dip across digital goods, cable, subscription merchants, and digital apps suggests a subscription hopping cycle rather than fatigue with any specific service type.
Some signals persist but the picture is more mixed than Q4. Discount stores grew +7.3% in transactions and variety stores +12.5%, both consistent with continued trade-down behavior. But fast-food transactions, which fell in Q4, recovered +18.7% in Q1, and grew in tandem with sit-down restaurants (+18.3%) rather than at their expense. Grocery dollar spend continued to outpace transaction growth, consistent with continued price inflation.
The category covers 9 MCCs across two themes: fitness and athletic gear (sporting goods, shoes, bicycles, sports apparel, gym memberships) and beauty and wellness services (spas, cosmetics, barber shops, massage).
The category groups 14 MCCs covering home improvement and gardening-related spend: home supply warehouses, hardware stores, lumber and building materials, garden and lawn supply, swimming pools, glass/paint/wallpaper, plumbing and heating equipment, electrical parts, A/C and plumbing contractors, masonry, flooring, furniture and home furnishings, and appliance stores.

Methodology

The Galileo Debit Spend Trends report is based on anonymized, aggregated debit transaction data processed through the Galileo Financial Technologies platform during Q1 2026 (January, February, and March).

Data covers transactions across 300+ Merchant Category Code (MCC) classifications. All percentages are based on a representative subset of Q1 debit transaction volume or month-to-month percentage changes.

References to U.S. tax season timing and refund averages are sourced from public IRS filing season statistics released between January and March 2026.

300+MCC classifications covered
50U.S. states plus territories
3Months: January, February, March 2026
100%Anonymized & aggregated